The headline number in any housing market is the price. But the price isn\'t what people pay each month. The payment is - and in Colorado Springs, those two numbers have moved on very different tracks since 2018.
The charts below are updated weekly from the MLS, FRED, and Census ACS data. They show the median home price in the Pikes Peak region, the estimated monthly payment on that median home at the prevailing 30-year fixed rate, and how that payment stacks up against local household income. Principal, interest, property tax, and insurance all included.
From 2018 through early 2020, the two lines moved roughly together. Prices were rising, rates were drifting down, and affordability was holding — each month\'s median home cost a little more, but the payment on it barely budged.
That decoupled in 2022. The Federal Reserve started raising the federal funds rate to fight inflation, and 30-year mortgage rates climbed from under 3% in early 2021 to a peak above 7.5% by late 2023. The median home price in Colorado Springs gave back maybe 5–8% from its summer 2022 high. The monthly payment on that median home roughly doubled.
A buyer in January 2021 — same income, same down payment — could afford a much more expensive home than the same buyer two years later, despite prices being nearly the same. That\'s the "lock-in effect" a lot of sellers are talking about right now. It\'s also why showing activity and sale counts softened even as inventory grew.
The point of the chart isn\'t to give you a quote for your own home. It\'s to show the relationship between price and payment at the market level, and how much of the post-2022 affordability squeeze was driven by rates rather than prices.
If you\'re waiting for prices to fall meaningfully before buying, it\'s worth asking which line on this chart you\'re actually trying to move. In the current cycle, rates have done most of the work — both up and down. A one-point drop in the 30-year rate at today\'s median price saves a typical buyer around $300 per month. A 10% drop in price at today\'s rate saves maybe $250. They aren\'t equivalent levers, and they haven\'t historically moved at the same time.
The "marry the house, date the rate" idea gets mocked, but there\'s a real argument under it: the payment that locks you out today may not be the same payment you carry for thirty years. Refinancing is an option. Buying at the right price is a one-time decision.
Prices and payments on their own don\'t tell you whether a market is affordable. You need a third number: what people actually earn. The chart below takes the same monthly payment estimate and divides it by median gross monthly household income for El Paso County, using the most recent Census ACS figures.
The two dashed lines are the thresholds that actually matter. The green line at 28% is the traditional "housing ratio" rule - what lenders historically considered a healthy share of gross income to spend on housing. The gray line at 43% is the qualified mortgage DTI ceiling - the number most lenders won\'t underwrite past for a conventional loan. Once the red line crosses into that top band, a meaningful slice of would-be buyers stops qualifying even if they want to stretch.
This is what a lot of "is housing unaffordable?" conversations miss. The answer isn\'t a feeling - it\'s a ratio. And the ratio is knowable, every month, from public data.
The chart also shows why pricing pressure has been real even when median prices look flat. Your buyers are comparing payments, not list prices, to their budgets. A home priced 5% above comparable sales when rates are at 6.25% sits on the market because the monthly payment gap is larger than the price gap suggests. Matching the market on price is now table stakes — small positioning mistakes compound quickly when the rate is doing the heavy lifting.
The chart above will continue to update every week as new MLS data and FRED rate data come in. No editing required — the numbers will tell the story as it evolves. Check back whenever you want to know where we are in the cycle, or when you\'re trying to decide whether today\'s market actually looks like the one in the headlines.
If you want to model a specific home or payment for yourself, the main search tool on this site will run the full monthly cost calculation on any active listing, including real property taxes from the county record.
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