What National Data Tells Us About Colorado Springs Home Prices

We track 30 years of local market data for the Pikes Peak MLS region — 362 months of median prices, sales volume, days on market, inventory, and more. Recently we wired in national economic indicators alongside that local data: the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, new home sales, housing starts, consumer sentiment, M2 money supply, and MBA mortgage application volume.

Then we ran cross-correlation analysis at every lag offset from 0 to 24 months. The question: which national signals actually predict what happens here, and how far in advance?

The results are striking.

The Money Pipeline: M2 Leads Local Prices by 4 Months

M2 money supply — the Federal Reserve's broadest measure of money in circulation — correlates with the local median home price at r = 0.968. That's near-perfect.

But when we shift to year-over-year rate of change (which strips out the shared upward trend and isolates actual movement), M2 growth leads local price growth by 4 months with a correlation of r = 0.435. When the money supply expands, it takes about four months to flow into Colorado Springs home values.

This isn't abstract monetary theory. It's measurable in our data across 30 years.

New Home Sales: Your 10-Month Early Warning

National new home sales data, published monthly by the Census Bureau, is the strongest leading indicator we found for local pricing direction.

Year-over-year changes in national new home sales lead Colorado Springs median price changes by 10 months (r = 0.567, r² = 0.322). When national new construction demand shifts, our market follows roughly 10 months later.

For sales volume rather than price, new home sales leads by just 1 month (r = 0.518). The transaction pipeline responds almost immediately; pricing adjusts on a longer delay.

Housing Starts Confirm in Real Time

National housing starts — the number of new residential construction projects begun — correlate with local price growth at r = 0.505 with a 1-month lag, and with local sales volume at r = 0.509 with zero lag.

When builders start building nationally, local transaction volume moves simultaneously. Prices follow within a month.

Case-Shiller: We Track National, But We've Outperformed

The Case-Shiller National Home Price Index and our local median price move almost in lockstep (r = 0.981). Since January 1996, national prices are up 302%. Colorado Springs is up 311% — a 9-percentage-point premium over national.

That premium peaked at +85.5 percentage points over national in June 2021, during the pandemic-driven surge. It has been narrowing since. Markets that overshoot tend to mean-revert, and the data suggests that convergence is still in progress.

Consumer Sentiment Is Noise

Despite the media's fixation on consumer confidence surveys, the data shows it's nearly useless for predicting local home prices (best r = 0.116). It's slightly better for sales volume (r = 0.282 at a 7-month lag), but still weak.

Headlines about consumer sentiment make for dramatic TV. They don't move the needle on what homes actually sell for here.

The Summary Table

What This Means Practically

If you're trying to time a purchase or sale in Colorado Springs, the most useful leading signals aren't local — they're national. New home sales data gives you nearly a year of advance notice on pricing direction. M2 gives you a quarter. Housing starts confirm what's already in motion.

And the indicators that generate the most headlines — consumer confidence, mortgage application volume — have the weakest predictive value for our specific market.

The data doesn't tell you what to do. It tells you what's coming, and roughly when. What you do with that is a personal decision that depends on your timeline, your financial position, and your goals.

Data: 362 months of elevateMLS market metrics (1996–2026), Case-Shiller National Home Price Index (FRED: CSUSHPINSA), New Home Sales (FRED: HSN1F), Housing Starts (FRED: HOUST), Consumer Sentiment (FRED: UMCSENT), M2 Money Supply (FRED: M2SL). Correlations computed as Pearson r on 12-month year-over-year percentage changes at lag offsets 0–24 months. Minimum 12 overlapping observations required.