We ran 30 years of Pikes Peak MLS rate and price data to test the most popular mantra in real estate. The answer is more complicated - and more honest - than the slogan suggests.
"Marry the house, date the rate" has become a go-to mantra for agents selling in a high-rate environment. The logic: buy now, refinance when rates drop, and you'll have locked in today's price. It sounds clean. It sounds smart. But does the data actually support it?
I ran 30 years of local rate and price data through the numbers. Here's what I found.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| 30-year average rate | 5.51% |
| All-time low | 2.68% (Dec 2020) |
| All-time high | 8.52% (May 2000) |
| Current rate | N/A% |
I looked at every month where a buyer locked in at 6.5% or higher, then checked whether rates dropped at least 1.5 points within 36 months - enough to justify closing costs and make a refinance genuinely worthwhile.
Result: 41% success rate.
Of 106 months where someone bought at 6.5%+, only 43 saw a meaningful refi window within 3 years. 59% of high-rate buyers got no meaningful refinance opportunity.
October 2022 through today - zero meaningful refi windows. Every buyer from Oct 2022 onward at 6.5–7.6% has seen rates stay elevated. The best available rate since then: 6.19% (Dec 2025). That's a 0.5–1.4 point drop at best - not enough to justify refi closing costs for most borrowers.
We are now 26 months into a high-rate cycle with no meaningful relief. The last time that happened, it lasted 78 months (Jan 1996 – Jun 2002).
Assuming 3% annual appreciation (the standard bull case):
| Buy Now, Refi in 2yr | Wait 2 Years | |
|---|---|---|
| Purchase price | $469,900 | $498,517 |
| Rate | 6.19% → 5.5% | 5.5% |
| Payment (after refi) | $2,668/mo | $2,831/mo |
| Extra monthly cost | — | +$162/mo forever |
| Missed equity | — | $28,617 |
The cost of paying 6.19% for 24 months before refi'ing is about $4,966 total. The cost of waiting - if prices keep climbing - is $28,617 in lost equity and a permanently higher payment.
If appreciation holds, buying now wins. That part of the math is clean.
Here's where I think we need to be more careful. The "buy now" argument assumes prices keep climbing. But what does the data say about that assumption right now?
| Metric | Value | Threshold |
|---|---|---|
| Median price | $489,000 | — |
| P&I at current rate | ~$2,875/mo | — |
| Full PITI (est.) | ~$3,321/mo | — |
| Payment-to-income | 50.4% | Healthy: 28% / Stretched: 36% |
Payment-to-income is at 50.4% against El Paso County's median household income of $79,026. That's not stretched - that's broken. The median household literally cannot afford the median home at current rates. That's not a prediction. It's a measurement. And it's a leading indicator of demand destruction.
This isn't hypothetical. It's happening:
The standard "buy now" pitch assumes 3% annual appreciation. What if prices go flat - or fall?
| Price Scenario (2yr) | Future Price | Payment at 5.5% | Who Wins? |
|---|---|---|---|
| +3%/yr appreciation | $498,517 | $2,831/mo | Buying now |
| Flat (0%) | $469,900 | $2,668/mo | Buying (narrowly) |
| -5% decline | $446,405 | $2,535/mo | Waiting |
| -10% decline | $422,910 | $2,401/mo | Waiting |
| -15% decline | $399,415 | $2,268/mo | Waiting |
The break-even is around a 5% price decline. If prices drop more than 5% over the next two years, the person who waited comes out ahead - even accounting for the rent they paid and the equity they didn't build.
| 24-Month Outcome | Frequency |
|---|---|
| Declined (any amount) | 55 of 336 = 16% |
| Flat (< 3% either way) | 30 of 336 = 9% |
| Declined or flat | 85 of 336 = 25% |
One in four 24-month windows in Colorado Springs history showed flat or declining prices. That's not a tail risk - it's a realistic scenario. And the most recent 24-month windows (2022–2024) are among them.
We're in a market where:
This doesn't mean "don't buy." It means the decision is personal, not formulaic.
A buyer who has a secure income well above median, plans to hold 7+ years, is buying below their max approval, and would be paying comparable rent anyway - is probably fine buying now, even without a near-term refi. The rate premium is real but manageable, and they're building equity.
A buyer who is stretching to qualify, might need to sell within 3–5 years, or is banking on a quick refi to make the payment work - is taking a real risk that the data doesn't support.
"You'll probably get to refi eventually - but plan your budget as if you won't. If the payment works at today's rate, buy. If it only works with a refi, wait."
Data: Pikes Peak MLS, Jan 1996 – Dec 2025. 362 months of rate and price data. Analysis covers the Colorado Springs metropolitan area. Individual situations vary - this is market-level analysis, not financial advice.
Have questions about the market?
Get personalized guidance from Rob Thompson.
Get daily email alerts when new homes matching your criteria hit the market.
Create a free account to save listings and get notified when new homes match your criteria.
No spam, just houses.
