The Home Playbook • Deep Dive
Most rent-versus-buy articles use national averages and arrive wherever the author wanted to go. This one uses 2,691 actual leased rentals from the Pikes Peak MLS and the same live sales data that runs this site. The numbers do not flatter either side.
Median rents from actually-leased MLS listings, spring 2026. About $1.22 per square foot.
Renting the median single-family home: $2,300/month. Owning the median home ($479,500 at 6.44% with 3% down, including actual taxes and insurance): about $3,379/month. Owning costs roughly $1,079 more per month, and about $438 of the owner's payment goes to principal in year one. The rest is interest, taxes, and insurance: the true cost of occupancy. Anyone telling you buying is cheaper month-to-month right now is not using this market's numbers.
Monthly cost is the wrong lens by itself. Over five years the renter pays rent that grows; the owner pays more but builds principal and rides the home's value, then pays roughly 8.5% in selling costs on the way out. Here is the full comparison, with the appreciation rate as the honest variable:
| If home values grow... | 5-year net cost: own | 5-year cost: rent | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0%/yr (flat, like 2022-2026) | $222,800 | $146,500 | Rent, by $76,300 |
| 2%/yr | $177,100 | $146,500 | Rent, by $30,600 |
| 4%/yr | $127,700 | $146,500 | Buy, by $18,800 |
The breakeven is about 3.3% annual appreciation over five years. For context: this market has run flat since 2022, and its long-run average is above 3.3%. Which side of that line the next five years lands on is the whole question, and nobody honest will promise you an answer. What if values stay flat? The table says renting wins, comfortably. What if we return to the long-run average? Buying wins. Your horizon matters too: stretch to ten years and the fixed payment plus compounding principal shift the math toward owning even at modest appreciation.
The renter's payment never builds anything but can rise every year; the owner's is fixed for 30. The owner absorbs the furnace and the roof; the renter absorbs the landlord's decisions about lease renewal. I believe in real estate as a long-term wealth builder, for the right person, at the right time. This page exists so you can decide if that time is now, with the actual numbers, instead of a slogan from either side.
Check the timing signals on Should You Buy Now? Test appreciation scenarios yourself in the market simulator. Ready to compare payments? Search homes by monthly cost.
Assumptions: median price $479,500, 6.44% 30-year fixed, 3% down, 0.52% property tax, $3,000/yr insurance, ~2% buyer closing costs, 8.5% total selling costs at exit, rent growth 3%/yr. Maintenance excluded from both sides (owners: budget ~1%/yr; renters: priced into rent). Rents: 2,691 MLS leased listings, spring 2026. A model for reasoning, not a forecast.
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