Market Analysis

When does Colorado Springs move the most homes?

Market velocity is how many homes actually change hands in a year. It is not random: it tracks affordability almost perfectly. Here is every year since 2006, charted against the median payment as a share of income, and what it would take to move like that again.

19,258

peak sales, 2020 (at 27.7% of income)

13,346

2025 sales · down 31% from peak

40%

today's payment vs income ($2,997/mo)

The finding: velocity peaks when the median payment sits near 27.7% of income (2020: 19,258 sales). Once affordability crossed into the high-30s and 40s, velocity fell off a cliff and flattened near 13,346. The affordability wall is costing Colorado Springs roughly 5,912 sales a year - about a third of its velocity. The 28% affordability line is not a lender's rule of thumb here; it is empirically where this market moves the most homes.

Velocity vs affordability, 2006 to today

Bars: closings per year (left axis, velocity). Line: median payment as a share of income (right axis, affordability). When the line stays low, the bars climb; when it spikes, they collapse. Source: Pikes Peak MLS closings + median household income.

What would restore peak velocity

Peak velocity (2020) happened at 27.7% of income. At today's 6.67% rate and $90,778 median income, hitting that again takes one of:

$314,311

median price (32% below today's $460,000)

3.07%

mortgage rate (from today's 6.67%)

Hit either and velocity should climb back toward the 19,258 range - roughly 44% above today. Wages closing the gap is the third, slower lever.

Every year

Year	Closings	Median	Rate	Payment	% of income
2026 (partial)	9,638	$463,495	6.35%	$2,931	38.7%
2025	13,346	$465,000	6.6%	$3,008	39.8%
2024	13,141	$463,000	6.74%	$3,034	40.1%
2023	13,463	$450,000	6.79%	$2,969	40.1%
2022	12,510	$455,000	5.33%	$2,613	38.1%
2021	16,544	$420,000	2.96%	$1,903	28.9%
2020	19,258	$358,000	3.11%	$1,672	27.7%
2019	17,939	$317,000	3.94%	$1,628	26.9%
2018	17,885	$296,000	4.54%	$1,625	28.7%
2017	18,684	$268,000	3.99%	$1,408	25.9%
2016	17,308	$245,472	3.65%	$1,259	23.8%
2015	15,086	$228,000	3.85%	$1,203	24.0%
2014	12,588	$215,000	4.17%	$1,179	23.9%
2013	11,946	$209,000	3.98%	$1,130	23.8%
2012	9,953	$195,000	3.66%	$1,032	22.4%
2011	9,212	$181,788	4.46%	$1,047	22.9%
2010	9,195	$186,500	4.69%	$1,094	25.5%
2009	9,434	$184,000	5.04%	$1,117	24.1%
2008	9,122	$196,000	6.04%	$1,290	26.2%
2007	11,270	$206,000	6.34%	$1,385	30.1%
2006	13,666	$206,000	6.41%	$1,393	31.4%

Methodology. Velocity = residential closings per year, Pikes Peak MLS (elevateMLS), full regional footprint, land and commercial excluded; 2025 is the last full year and the current year is partial. Affordability = the monthly payment on that year's median-priced home as a share of that year's median household income, modeled at 10% down, El Paso County's ~0.48% effective property tax, and $1,800/yr insurance, using each year's average 30-year rate. The 28% line is the standard front-end affordability threshold. "What would restore peak velocity" solves for the price or rate that returns today's payment-to-income to the peak year's level. A directional read on how affordability drives volume, not a forecast. Source and analysis: Rob Thompson, Realtor, Iconic Colorado Properties. Updated September 20, 2026.

When does Colorado Springs move the most homes?

Velocity vs affordability, 2006 to today

What would restore peak velocity

Every year

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