Over the last five years, Colorado Springs incomes rose about 25% and home prices rose about 29%. The monthly payment on a median home rose 75%. That gap is the whole story of what people mean when they say the market got unaffordable, and it points at a cause most headlines miss.
Prices and incomes actually moved together over the five years, both up about a quarter. If that were the whole picture, affordability would be roughly where it started. It is not, because the third line on the chart, the mortgage payment, nearly doubled. The reason is the interest rate: the average 30-year rate went from about 3.1% in 2020 to the mid-6s today. A higher rate raises the payment on the exact same price, and that is what moved.
Put in one number: the payment on a median-priced Colorado Springs home as a share of median household income went from about 28% in 2020 to roughly 40% by 2023, and it has stayed near there since. That jump from the high 20s to the high 30s is the line between a market most buyers can stretch into and one where a lot of them simply cannot qualify.
| Year | Median price | Avg 30-yr rate | Monthly payment | Median income | Payment / income |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $358,000 | 3.11% | $1,671 | $72,459 | 27.7% |
| 2021 | $420,000 | 2.96% | $1,902 | $79,094 | 28.9% |
| 2022 | $455,000 | 5.33% | $2,612 | $82,248 | 38.1% |
| 2023 | $450,000 | 6.79% | $2,968 | $88,794 | 40.1% |
| 2024 | $463,000 | 6.74% | $3,034 | $90,778 | 40.1% |
| 2025 | $465,000 | 6.60% | $3,007 | $90,778 | 39.8% |
| 2026 | $463,000 | 6.35% | $2,928 | $90,778 | 38.7% |
Payment modeled on the median-priced home at 10% down, that year's average 30-year rate, El Paso County's roughly 0.48% effective property tax, and $1,800 per year insurance. Red marks 2022, the year the rate shock landed.
Sellers price against what a buyer can pay per month, not against a headline sale price, and buyers qualify on the payment. When the payment climbs 75% while paychecks climb 25%, the pool of buyers who can clear the median shrinks, homes take longer to sell, and sellers make up the difference with price cuts and concessions. It is the same force behind slower sales velocity and the return of a balanced supply: demand got knocked back to meet the market, not the other way around.
There is a hopeful corner to the chart. The payment line has ticked down since its 2024 peak as rates eased off their highs. Prices did not need to fall for that to happen, which is the point: the payment is a rate problem, and a rate problem can be refinanced later. The price you lock in today is permanent; the rate is not.
Income here is the Census ACS median household income for El Paso County, which runs a year or two behind, so the most recent figure is carried forward until the next release. The payment is a market-level model on the median home, not a quote on any specific house. And this is a directional read on how affordability shifted, not a forecast of where it goes next.
See the same forces from other angles: how affordability drives sales velocity, why supply came back, the demographic wave meeting the wall, and buy now or wait. To run the math on your own home, use what your home is worth.
Analysis by Rob Thompson, Realtor, Iconic Colorado Properties. Sources: Pikes Peak MLS (elevateMLS) closed residential sales and average 30-year rates; Census ACS median household income for El Paso County. Figures indexed to 2020.
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