Market Analysis
Did the supply come back, or did the buyers leave?
Colorado Springs inventory is back to a normal 4 to 6 months of supply for the first time in about a decade. The comfortable read is that the market healed. The data says something else. Here is months of supply charted against affordability, the median payment as a share of income, every year since 2006.
+0.84
how tightly supply and unaffordability have tracked since 2020 (they used to be unrelated)
4.5x
supply rebuild since the 2021 bottom (1.0 to 4.5 months)
39.8%
2025 median payment as a share of income (the wall)
The finding: for most of the record, supply and affordability had almost nothing to do with each other (2006 to 2019 correlation -0.06, essentially zero). Since 2020 they have moved in near lockstep, +0.84: every step worse in affordability has come with more months of supply. Supply did not come back because building boomed or the market healed. It came back because the payment wall knocked demand down to meet inventory. The one exception is 2021, when sub-3 percent rates (2.96%) kept payments low and locked owners in place, bottoming supply at 1.0 month even as prices climbed. The moment rates normalized in 2022, the wall did its work, and supply has risen every year since.
Supply and affordability, 2006 to today
Bars: months of supply by year (left axis). Line: median payment as a share of income (right axis, affordability). Before 2020 the two drift apart. After 2020 they climb together. Source: Pikes Peak MLS active inventory, closed sales, and median household income.
How the supply actually rebuilt
Months of supply is active listings divided by sales, so it can climb two ways: more listings, or fewer sales. Both happened, and both trace back to the same wall.
2.9x
active inventory, off an artificially suppressed floor (1,736 in 2021 to 4,962 in 2025) as rate-locked owners slowly returned
-37%
sales, as priced-out buyers stepped back (1,736 in 2021 to 1,097 in 2025)
The inventory rebuild is the larger of the two forces, but both point the same way. Today's balanced 4 to 6 month supply is a demand-side balance, reached because affordability pulled demand back to meet a normalizing inventory. It is not the healthy-turnover balance of a market where buyers and sellers both show up in force.
Every year
| Year | Months of supply | Avg active | Sales/mo | Payment % of income |
|---|
| 2026 (partial) |
3.7 |
4,236 |
1,160 |
38.7% |
| 2025 |
4.5 |
4,962 |
1,097 |
39.8% |
| 2024 |
3.8 |
4,121 |
1,091 |
40.1% |
| 2023 |
2.9 |
3,200 |
1,120 |
40.1% |
| 2022 |
2.0 |
2,859 |
1,455 |
38.1% |
| 2021 |
1.0 |
1,736 |
1,736 |
28.9% |
| 2020 |
1.3 |
2,211 |
1,653 |
27.7% |
| 2019 |
1.9 |
2,822 |
1,523 |
26.9% |
| 2018 |
2.0 |
2,938 |
1,491 |
28.7% |
| 2017 |
1.8 |
2,844 |
1,560 |
25.9% |
| 2016 |
2.3 |
3,324 |
1,459 |
23.8% |
| 2015 |
3.8 |
4,843 |
1,265 |
24.0% |
| 2014 |
5.8 |
6,102 |
1,059 |
23.9% |
| 2013 |
4.9 |
4,994 |
1,012 |
23.8% |
| 2012 |
5.6 |
4,813 |
856 |
22.4% |
| 2011 |
7.4 |
5,815 |
790 |
22.9% |
| 2010 |
6.1 |
4,289 |
699 |
25.5% |
| 2009 |
6.6 |
4,829 |
729 |
24.1% |
| 2008 |
8.5 |
5,935 |
694 |
26.2% |
| 2007 |
7.4 |
6,176 |
832 |
30.1% |
| 2006 |
5.3 |
5,208 |
991 |
31.4% |
Methodology. Months of supply = average active listings divided by monthly closed sales, from Pikes Peak MLS (elevateMLS) records back to 2006. Affordability = the monthly payment on that year's median-priced home as a share of that year's median household income, modeled at 10 percent down, El Paso County's roughly 0.48 percent effective property tax, and $1,800 per year insurance, using each year's average 30-year rate. The payment-to-income series starts in 2006, the first year with a reliable median close price. Correlation figures are directional reads over annual points, not statistical proof, and rates, construction, and investor demand all moved over this window. Figures are annual averages, and months of supply is seasonal, so read the trend rather than a single month. Source and analysis: Rob Thompson, Realtor, Iconic Colorado Properties. Updated September 22, 2026.
